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CESP PUBLICATIONS
Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution
Journal Article
Authors:
Terry L. Root
Dena MacMynowski
Michael D. Mastrandrea
Stephen H. Schneider
Published by
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,  Volume 102, 21, page(s) 7465-7469
May 16, 2005

Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climate change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data, which are independent of thermometer records and paleoclimatic proxies, we demonstrate statistically significant "joint attribution," a two-step linkage: human activities contribute significantly to temperature changes and human-changed temperatures are associated with discernible changes in plant and animal traits. Additionally, our analyses provide independent testing of grid-box-scale temperature projections from a general circulation model (HadCM3).

Related Publications

Fingerprints of global warming on animals and plants

Terry L. Root, J.T. Price, K.R. Hall, Stephen H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig, J.A. Pounds
Nature vol. 421, 6918 (2003) +PDF+
 

Study shows humans contribute to early arrival of spring activity in wild species

Ashley M. Dean
Stanford Report (2005) +HTML+
Parent Research Programs and Projects

Global Climate Change
Research Project