Center for Environmental Science and Policy  
  
FSI Stanford HomeStanford University  
Directions Contact Us
1
CESP
News
Events
People
Research
Academic Publications
Courses
About CESP
CESP PROGRAMS
Goldman Honors Program
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
------
OUTREACH
Publications
Media
Support CESP
-------- Get Involved --



CESP PUBLICATIONS
Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of "Dangerous" Climate Change
Journal Article
Authors:
Michael D. Mastrandrea
Stephen H. Schneider
Published by
Science,  Volume 304, pages 571-575
April 23, 2004

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system - climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from 45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Downloads
+PDF+ PDF: ProbabilisticIntegratedAssessment.pdf (346Kb)
+HTML+ Go to site:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/cont...
Parent Event
 

Whole Earth Systems: Science, Technology and Policy

Symposium 2/10/2005 - 2/12/2005
+PDF+ 8 papers available
Parent Research Programs and Projects

Global Climate Change
Research Project