In collaboration with Mexico's Center for Conservation and Use of Natural Resources (CECARENA) and Pronatura-Sonora, Stanford University proposes a three-year research program to study the social, cultural, economic and institutional dynamics of coastal change in southern Sonora. The proposed study will be unique in linking population- and consumption-driven resource use to ecological change along the coast, and then linking ecological change back to resource use through a set of social responses. These responses include migration, social conflict, and the organization of conservation efforts.

Researchers from Stanford University have been working in southern Sonora for six years, mainly on issues related to agricultural development, nitrogen pollution, and land use-land cover change in terrestrial ecosystems. Given the location of the study area-directly on the coast of the Sea of Cortez-the potential impacts of agricultural development, population growth, urbanization, and livestock development on coastal ecosystems is great. Moreover, coastal change is occurring at a rapid pace, mainly as a result of the burgeoning shrimp aquaculture industry in the region. During the past few years, Stanford has established a relationship with two local institutions, CECARENA and Pronatura-Sonora, whose work focuses on resource use and conservation of coastal ecosystems, in order to design an integrated research project on land-sea interactions. The groups have met in Sonora and at Stanford.

The proposed research will use remote sensing, GIS, historical records, and field-interview techniques within a series of estuarine systems to assess the roles of various mediating factors in shaping the interactions between population and resource use. Examples of mediating factors include demographic trends, socioeconomic conditions, economic and institutional policy changes, cultural norms, and property rights. These factors influence resource use, environmental change, and social responses to environmental change within the coastal region. In particular, the study will map coastal change in the context of socioeconomic dynamics and social action. The collaboration between Stanford, CECARENA and Pronatura-Sonora-whose collective expertise lies in the areas of socioeconomic and policy assessment, geographic mapping of ecological and land use-land cover change, and community action and conservation, respectively--will provide new insights into the process of coastal development and relevant policy measures to stem coastal degradation and social unrest in the region.