Integrated assessment modeling of abrupt climatic changes and climatic uncertainties:
When faced with the potential for abrupt climatic changes, where actions taken now may precondition unforeseen changes that cannot be reversed, policymakers need to have at hand a balanced perspective about the probabilities for such future climatic changes. Schneider and Interdisciplinary Program on Environment and Resources (IPER) Ph.D. student Michael Mastrandrea, are working together to incorporate uncertainties in key climatic variables into models that integrate climate change and economics. The results are designed to be useful for policy analysis.

Attribution of regional climate-change-induced ecosystem alterations to anthropogenic climate change:
Root, Schneider, Mastrandrea, and postdoctoral fellow Dena Pedynowski are investigating the extent to which humans are influencing changes in the natural world by injecting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Previous work by Schneider and others has shown that humans are causing a discernible impact on climate, and contributions from Root and additional researchers have shown that the changing climate is already transforming various ecosystems of the natural world. Such changes are so rapid that the services ecosystems provide may be hampered.

The next step is to show the degree to which human-induced climate change has affected plants and animals in the last fifty years or so. To do this, Root et al. are using predictive models to compare known shifts in regional climates and changes in the timing of spring events with human-induced regional climate. This will determine whether there is a direct connection between human activities that modify climate and alterations in regional ecosystems. Such a finding will help policymakers realize that dumping wastes into the atmosphere may already be affecting species and ecosystems.

The effect of weather and climate on migration patterns of North American birds:
Root and Pedynowski are analyzing data on the timing of migration of birds in the spring and fall. These data come from records collected when people catch and mark birds for other studies, and from records of bird mortality when they hit buildings in Chicago. By comparing the patterns of the arrival of birds at their migration destination with wind patterns, which can be affected by global warming, the team is hoping to develop a better understanding of the impact of global warming on animal species.